When a serious explosion lit the skies on the sting of Tehran final week, the Iranian authorities was fast to dismiss the episode as a gasoline explosion on the Parchin navy base, which was as soon as the main target of worldwide nuclear inspectors.

It turned out that was false: Satellite tv for pc images present the explosion occurred at a missile manufacturing facility not removed from Parchin, a base laced with underground tunnels and lengthy suspected to be a serious web site for Iran’s rising arsenal.

However past Tehran’s effort at misdirection — industrial satellite tv for pc images confirmed the telltale burn marks of the explosion and the placement — it’s unclear whether or not the trigger was an accident, sabotage or one thing else.

American and Israeli intelligence officers insist they’d nothing to do with it.

However in Iran, the place curating conspiracy theories is a nationwide pastime, the sight of an enormous explosion in jap Tehran rapidly merged on social media with information of an influence outage in Shiraz, practically 600 miles to the south. Shiraz additionally has main navy amenities, and the explosion and the outage occurred inside the similar hour on Friday.

There isn’t any proof the incidents have been associated.

Nuclear inspectors visited the Parchin navy facility 5 years in the past after years of standoffs with the Iranian authorities. Renovations on the facility had been so intensive that it led to suspicions that the federal government might need been trying to hide past work on nuclear detonation technologies.

After the episode final week, Iranian information organizations have been proven a small gap in an in any other case intact gasoline tank, which appeared an inconceivable rationalization for an explosion so massive that footage of the flames, taken miles from the location, confirmed up on Twitter.

By the tip of the weekend, overhead industrial images confirmed a scorched hillside on the Khojir missile manufacturing advanced in jap Tehran, the place each liquid and stable propellants are made for Iran’s missile fleets.

“It appears seemingly that some form of gasoline or liquid storage tank blew up,” stated Fabian Hinz, an professional on Iran’s navy on the James Martin Middle for Nonproliferation Research on the Middlebury Institute of Worldwide Research in Monterey, Calif. “Most likely industrial gasoline that’s wanted for missile manufacturing,” he stated, however it was unclear from the photographs. The primary buildings on the missile manufacturing heart appeared undamaged.

Iran’s missile program has lengthy been a goal of Israeli intelligence businesses. A big explosion in 2011, which killed a key architect of Iran’s missile program, is broadly seen as an act of sabotage.

However this explosion might have been completely different. Two Israeli intelligence providers that function outdoors Israel’s borders, the Mossad and the Israel Protection Forces intelligence unit, stated they have been investigating the episode and had not but reached a remaining conclusion on whether or not it was an accident or sabotage. However a number of officers insisted that Israel was not concerned.

American officers additionally stated they doubted it was a sabotage operation. Normally, Israel and the US act in coordination in such covert missions, as they did with the cyberattack on Iran’s nuclear centrifuge facility at Natanz a decade in the past.

A spokeswoman for the Israeli prime minister’s workplace declined to touch upon whether or not Israel was concerned within the explosion, a regular response to such questions. A spokesperson for the I.D.F. additionally declined to remark.

Ronen Solomon of IntelliTimes, an intelligence weblog, who was among the many first to establish the Khojir missile facility as the location of the explosion, famous that it did “little injury.” However he famous it was “an enormous facility,” and as a part of the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, it has been the goal of American financial sanctions.

If the explosion was an act of sabotage, some analysts famous, it was rigorously designed to not invite retaliation as a result of injury was so minimal. However prior to now, there have been small assaults designed to create concern amongst Iranians that international powers had insiders within the nation’s delicate navy packages.

Iran’s information media tried to counter reviews in regards to the missile web site, saying these have been generated by “enemy media” wanting to painting Iran’s missile bases as weak to assault.